Is $60K Inevitable for BTC Amid Market Weakness?

Bitcoin (BTC) continues in a broad consolidation phase following the steep declines earlier this year. The asset remains confined in a horizontal range that signals short-term indecision among market participants. While attempts to retest higher resistance levels around $75k have been met with selling pressure, BTC’s support near $60k has so far held, defining the lower boundary of the current range.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC shows clear lower highs and lows following the peak above $125k. The trend remains bearish in the broader context, as the 100-day (~$78k) and 200-day moving averages (~$90k) are both trending downward above current prices, adding overhead resistance.

The recent bounce toward the $75k supply zone has been rejected, and the asset even failed to reach the higher boundary of the large descending channel and the 100-day moving average nearby. This indicates that sellers remain active at higher levels and consistently sell into short-term rallies. The RSI also shows moderate recovery over the past couple of months, but is currently below 50, reflecting that bullish pressure is still limited.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

Dropping into the 4-hour chart, BTC recently formed a bearish market shift after a rejection at the key $75k level and the upper boundary of the flag pattern. The short-term trend shows lower highs and lows, and the market is breaking below the lower trendline of the pattern at the moment.

Short-term RSI also indicates near oversold conditions after the recent sell-off, suggesting a minor relief rally or consolidation could occur. However, the continuation of the descending trendline and the several bearish imbalances formed overhead indicate that any upward moves could face strong resistance. Therefore, short-term traders are likely positioning themselves for a revisit of the $60k zone in the coming days.

On-Chain Analysis

The BTC spot-to-derivative trading volume ratio has recently declined. This indicates that trading activity has shifted toward derivatives rather than spot BTC. It suggests that most participants are using leverage instead of buying or selling actual BTC, which typically increases short-term volatility.

With more traders relying on leveraged positions, small price moves can trigger amplified reactions, potentially resulting in sharp swings if key support or resistance levels are tested. This setup highlights a fragile short-term market structure despite consolidation in price, and could lead to liquidation cascades to either side, but still, a bearish move and long liquidation cascade is the most likely scenario.