Iran-US blockades in Strait of Hormuz heighten oil transit concerns

The ongoing blockades by Iran and the US in the Strait of Hormuz continue to raise concerns about oil transit through the region. Trump’s announcement of lifting the US blockade by May 31 sits at 82% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.

In the April 17 market, odds are slim at 5.3% YES with only one day left to resolve. The April 19 market sits at 9.5% YES. The biggest jump occurs from April 19 to May 31, which suggests traders expect a catalyst sometime after April.

The May 31 market trades $5,868 in USDC daily, with $3,730 required to shift the odds by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The April 19 market, with $11,934 traded, is more volatile and easier to move, requiring only $257 to shift the odds.

The flat May 31 odds point to skepticism about a rapid resolution. A YES share priced at 82¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 1.22x return. With tensions ongoing, that payout is thin without a clear de-escalation signal.

Watch for US-Iran diplomatic engagements or statements from the Pentagon. A specific agreement or announcement from Trump could move these markets quickly.

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