US-Iran peace talks stall with uranium enrichment unresolved

US-Iran peace talks have hit a wall, according to CNBC. The market for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 now sits at 1.3% YES, down from 6% a day ago and 50% a week ago.

The uranium enrichment market absorbed most of the impact. With only 6 days left until resolution, the odds of a breakthrough are thin. The largest move today was a spike from 8% to 10% at 11:26 AM, but it quickly corrected. Other markets related to diplomatic meetings remain largely unaffected.

The market traded $4,778 in USDC over the last 24 hours, with $2,529 required to shift the odds by 5 percentage points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest single move was a 2-point jump, meaning traders are reacting to news but aren’t betting heavily on a resolution. Both sides remain dug in on key issues.

Talks in Islamabad have produced no visible progress on uranium enrichment. Sanctions, military posturing, and entrenched positions on both sides leave little room for a deal. A YES share, priced at 1.3¢, pays $1 if Iran agrees to end enrichment, a 76.9x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a major diplomatic shift occurs within six days.

Watch for unexpected announcements from Iran’s Supreme Leader or the US administration. A sudden change in rhetoric or a surprise meeting could move these odds quickly.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.