ChatGPT set the chance for such a scenario at less than 15%.
It has been a rough few weeks for the Bitcoin bulls, as the asset’s price has plummeted well below $100,000.
Some analysts and community members have started waving the white flag, declaring the start of the bear market. We turned to four of the most popular AI chatbots to determine if a more significant plunge to $50,000 is on the horizon.
It Seems Unlikely
According to ChatGPT, BTC has entered a bearish phase inside a larger bull cycle. That said, it claimed that a crash to $50,000 before the end of 2025 is unexpected and would require “a major negative catalyst.” Such a shock would be a recession, the fallout of a leading crypto exchange (similar to what happened with FTX in 2022), and other factors.
The chatbot stated that double-digit corrections are normal in bull markets, noting that the current cycle is stronger than previous ones due to the strong demand created by the spot BTC ETFs.
In conclusion, ChatGPT estimated that the chance of a collapse to $50K by New Year’s Eve is in the 5% – 15% range. The highest probability is for the price to trade between $70,000 and $110,000, whereas the odds of a new rally above $120,000 are 30% – 40%.
Grok argued that the plunge to such a low level is possible but unlikely based on current analyst consensus, historical patterns, and macroeconomic tailwinds.
“A drop to $50,000 would require a ~47% further decline from today’s levels, which would be an extreme event even for Bitcoin’s volatile history. While risks exist, most forecasts point to stabilization or upside by December 31, 2025,” it added.
It claimed that the potential lowering of interest rates in the US could fuel the resurgence that bulls are awaiting. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 10. Just a few weeks ago, the chances of a 0.25% rate cut were 90%, but currently, the “no change” option is estimated at 51%.
Other Forecasts
Perplexity shared a similar thesis, considering a collapse of that type, “a lower-probability scenario.” It suggested that BTC will continue trading above $85,000 until the end of the year, even speculating that the price may skyrocket to $190,000 under bullish cases.
“Bitcoin crashing to $50,000 before the end of 2025 is not the most likely outcome, but it remains a plausible downside risk if adverse macroeconomic or regulatory events worsen. Current technical and fundamental analysis generally indicate a higher base level nearer $85,000-$100,000 with strong long-term bullish momentum overall,” it summarized.
Last but not least, we sought the opinion of Google’s Gemini. It stated that a major banking crisis, a rise in interest rates in the United States, or a large-scale security exploit on a well-known exchange can trigger a drop to $50K.
On the other hand, bullish factors like the institutional adoption following the introduction of spot BTC ETFs and the increasing acceptance of the asset as digital gold make this improbable.
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