Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded a mild uptick over the past week as it traded above $117,240. New data suggest that the crypto asset’s path forward depends on $115,440 support.
The reaction around this level will likely determine whether Bitcoin extends its rally or slips into a sharper correction.
Lose $115K, Face $93K
According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez’s latest update, BTC’s Pricing Bands reveal the emergence of $115,440 as the most critical support level for the crypto asset. This threshold now serves as the decisive pivot point for the market’s next major move.
If Bitcoin manages to hold above it, momentum could build toward the next upside target at $137,300. This is expected to boost bullish conviction further. However, a breakdown below this zone could expose the market to deeper downside pressure, and even bring $93,600 into focus as the next key support.
Meanwhile, Swissblock found that the recent short-term volatility in Bitcoin was repricing risk, and not a market breakdown. According to the firm, testing the lower end of Bitcoin’s current range remains within normal volatility expectations and could be the final downside move before the next major leg higher.
Two bullish signals have surfaced that support this outlook – rising liquidity and strong network growth. These signals together have historically led to sharp advances.
For example, in February 2024, Bitcoin surged 35% in two weeks, while in November 2024, it rallied 40% in three weeks following similar build-ups. Now, the firm noted that Bitcoin is experiencing the strongest and longest build-up of the entire cycle, and is effectively spring-loading the market for a breakout.
Within one to three weeks, they expect new all-time highs for Bitcoin, which could be accompanied by upside rotations in Ethereum and altcoins, fueled by sidelined cash ready to re-enter at lower levels.
September Seasonal Drag Nearing End?
September has historically been challenging for Bitcoin, but conditions appear to be changing. The crypto asset climbed 3% last week. Bitfinex Alpha report also highlighted that the asset is showing signs of forming a stable base.
The momentum is visible across the market as evidenced by the surge in the total crypto capitalization, while on-chain buy pressure and Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) metrics further point to a strong investor participation, which could position Bitcoin for a potential breakout into Q4.
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