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A recent crypto-based forecasting event hosted by EveryX drew 252 participants who attempted to predict the closing price of Bitcoin on September 10, 2025. The activity, styled as a prediction market, settled outcomes based on data from the Binance BTC/USDT spot market.
BitPinas is partnering with EveryX to add market sentiment data and predication-based insights to our crypto and web3 coverage. Full announcement here.
Accurate Prediction
The event concluded on September 9 at 11:00 p.m. (UTC+8), with participants submitting forecasts for Bitcoin’s price at exactly 2:59 p.m. the following day. The event offered multiple predefined ranges, including “$111,000–$113,999.99,” which emerged as the most selected bracket.
According to Binance market data, Bitcoin’s price at the specified time was recorded at $111,803.98. Nearly 48% of users had selected the $111,000–$113,999.99 range, resulting in a collective win.
Other participants forecasted different outcomes, with 35% expecting a value below $111,000, 9% forecasting $114,000–$116,999.99, and 8% predicting on $117,000 or above.
The resolution methodology was based strictly on the Binance spot market’s closing price at 2:59 p.m., disregarding intraday volatility. Independent pricing data from CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap showed similar figures around the designated time:
What Happened in the Final Hours?
According to EveryX, user activity during the final 20 minutes “clustered and directional,” with many participants quickly placing trades on the same outcome. This pattern more closely resembled herding behavior than independent conviction-based trading, EveryX said in a statement.
“Participants appeared to follow the emerging trend rather than act in isolation. The market behavior suggested a tipping point that once sentiment leaned in one direction, many followed,”
Hayate Matsuzaki, EveryX
Beyond the price convergence, EveryX also observed that users tended to place multiple small, incremental trades rather than single large positions:
“This suggests that prediction market users behave differently from traditional traders—more exploratory, probing the market, and adjusting in real time.”
Hayate Matsuzaki, EveryX
How Prediction Market Works?
The platform divided the forecast event into clearly defined steps:
- Event Creation: A specific question is posted (e.g., Bitcoin’s price at a specific time).
- Staking Period: Participants submit their forecasts and stake tokens.
- Lock-In: No entries allowed past the cutoff time; event marked pending resolution.
- Resolution: Price data is extracted at the pre-set time from Binance.
- Outcome and Distribution: Users whose predictions match the resolved range share the token pool.
What is a Prediction Market?
Prediction markets, such as this one, are digital platforms where users can stake tokens on future events. These platforms typically rely on smart contracts to execute outcomes transparently and without centralized oversight.
EveryX is one among several platforms using crypto to explore this model, alongside well-known projects like Polymarket and Augur.
Other Related Articles About Prediction Markets:
This article is published on BitPinas: Crypto Prediction Market Nails Bitcoin Price in Recent EveryX Event
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