US-Iran talks stall, Hormuz blockade resolution unlikely by May 31

Talks between the US and Iran have stalled, pushing the Polymarket odds for the US lifting the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31 down to 43.5% YES, down from 60% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

The Hormuz blockade sub-market has moved sharply. With 32 days left, odds have fallen from 76% a week ago to 43.5% now. The largest recent move was a 5-point drop at 1:33 AM, suggesting traders are hedging against a prolonged standoff. The US-Iran ceasefire market sits at 0.9% YES, down from 3% a day ago.

Trading volume for the Hormuz market is at $268,506 in face value, or $134,629 in actual USDC traded. The order book shows it takes $17,388 to move the price by 5 points, meaning the market is relatively stable but still susceptible to large orders. The ceasefire market has a higher face value of $720,564 but only $17,092 in actual USDC, making it far easier to move with smaller trades.

Why it matters

The stalled talks via Islamabad and Moscow suggest a quick resolution is unlikely. Diplomatic channels through both intermediaries have failed to produce visible progress. At a YES price of 44¢, the Hormuz blockade market offers a potential 2.27x return if resolved, which continues to attract speculative traders betting on a late breakthrough.

What to watch

Keep an eye on statements from CENTCOM and any shifts in rhetoric from Trump or Iranian leadership. Updates from intermediaries in Islamabad could also signal changes. Watch specifically for new military actions or diplomatic overtures that could move these markets.

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